| 2009-10 Season Preview: Boston Celtics Authored by Andrew Perna - September 22, 2009 - 7:15 pm
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2008-09 FIC Ranking: 2nd, +15.7 per game
Key Additions: Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels
Key Subtractions: Leon Powe
Key Rookies: Lester Hudson
Probable Starters: Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo had a monster of a series against the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the playoffs last April, but the promise that he showed vanished when the point guard’s name was strangely mentioned in trade rumors this offseason. Like it or not, Rondo is the future of the Boston Celtics. He may be entering his fourth NBA season, but some forget that he’s only 23 and is still the youngest player in Beantown.
As far as his play on the court goes, he has shown considerable improvement each year, something Danny Ainge is hoping will continue this season. He shot over 50% from the field in 2008-09, but he’s still not a reliable perimeter shooter. With a healthy Kevin Garnett, Rondo is fourth on the depth chart as far as defenses are concerned. That’s why he was able to hit half his shots. It’s also why he’ll need to improve his form and consistency to prepare for when The Big Three are gone.
Despite his critic’s contention that he is a product of playing in Boston, Rondo was third on the team in Win Shares (9.7) last season. He was just a step behind Ray Allen (11.0) and Paul Pierce (10.2). He doesn’t waste the chances he gets either. He attempted fewer than 10 shots per game last year, but his PER was 18.8 (second to Garnett’s 21.2) because of how active he is on the floor.
The Celtics still lack a solid, traditional point guard behind Rondo. The Stephon Marbury experiment didn’t work and they failed to readdress the need this summer. They have invited Dan Dickau to training camp, which could be bad news for rookie Lester Hudson.
Swingmen: Ray Allen is making a little noise about wanting a contract extension as he enters the final season of the five-year contract he signed with the now-defunct Seattle Supersonics at the midpoint of this decade. He’s still a deadly shooter -- among the league’s best even at 34 -- but the lack of a contract could be a detriment to Boston’s continuity as they attempt to reach the Promised Land once again.
With that said, the combination of Allen and Paul Pierce is the league’s best wing duo. Pierce isn’t the NBA’s best player, contrary to his own belief, but he is without a doubt among the team’s top-fifteen talents. On the surface, neither Pierce nor Allen has lost a significant step. However, both have seen not only a decrease in production, but also a dip in efficiency. The pair has seen their traditional shooting percentages increase over the last two seasons, but their PER numbers are starting to slip. In the case of Pierce, Rondo can be blamed. Throughout his career, the former Kansas star has had a hand on at least 20% of the team’s assists. With Rondo emerging, Pierce’s assist percentage dipped to 16.3% in 2008-09.
Pierce’s exasperated facial expressions turn some off, as did his infamous postseason injury theatrics, but we are talking about a player that will go down in history as one of the best to play for the NBA’s most storied franchise.
Boston has promise behind Allen and Pierce, but there are some question marks on the bench. Eddie House, Marquis Daniels, Tony Allen, J.R Giddens and Bill Walker is a quintet full of talent, but the combination of Daniels/Allen appeared in just 100 games last season. House is listed as Rondo’s backup, but he’s as much a point guard as Kendrick Perkins. Should Daniels and Allen have trouble remaining healthy, Giddens and Walker should be able to play respective roles in limited time.
Frontcourt: Those that read my work or listen to RealGM Radio frequently are probably tired of hearing it, but the biggest acquisition made in the NBA this offseason is the addition of a healthy Garnett in Boston. The Celtics brought the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Orlando Magic to seven games without the first ballot Hall of Famer, and their best player (sorry Paulie). Imagine what they could have done with him.
Garnett was limited by his knee injury last year, but was still a part of Boston’s ten best five-man units. With #5 on the floor, the Celtics were +474 on the season and averaged a 13-point edge per 48 minutes. Boston finished the season with an average point differential of +7.5, and that number probably would have been higher had Garnett remained healthy.
Even if Garnett enters the season at a little less than 100%, the Celtics now have Rasheed Wallace to plug into the starting lineup or take a bulk of the minutes at power forward if needed. In terms of the price tag, the signing of Wallace was unquestionably one of the best of the summer. It’s discussed, but not nearly enough -- Ainge has gone from pariah to deity in Boston in two quick years.
Glen Davis was looking for more money than he deserved on the free-agent market, and the Celtics rightly waited for the forward to re-sign for the chance to continue contending for the Larry O’Brien trophy. Boston’s points scored per 100 possessions was 2.3 fewer with Big Baby on the floor last year, while their points allowed per 100 possessions was five higher when he played.
Rondo’s ascent put center Kendrick Perkins on the backburner a bit. Boston’s starting five went from the Big Three, Rondo and Perkins to the Big Three and a Half plus Perk. I would have liked to see them get a proven big man to play behind Perkins, but they “settled” for Shelden Williams. Aside from Perkins, Garnett and Wallace are the only players with the size or skill set to spend time at center. The depth that the Celtics have at the two/three and at power forward is great, but one (or more) of those spots could have been given to another center. Similar to Marbury, Mikki Moore was a failed test, but there were options that Ainge could have pounced on.
Forecast: As usual, the Celtics will jump right into the fire with an opening night battle against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. It will be tough for Boston to truly matchup with Dwight Howard and Shaquille O’Neal/Zydrunas Ilgauskas once again, but they shouldn’t have a problem finishing the season at the top of the Eastern Conference as long as they remain healthy. There are fewer question marks in Boston than in Orlando or Cleveland, which will be the difference in 2010.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7
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