| This Ain’t No Summer of Love: Danny Ainge’s Moment of Truth Authored by Elrod Enchilada - May 20, 2005 - 12:28 pm
Two-thirds of the way through the Celtics 2004-05 season, serious fans had a quiet confidence about the team. The team was a .500 team, true, but it was chock full of talented young players. If only a couple of them panned out as quality starters the team would be on solid footing. If three or four did, the team was going to blast off a couple of years down the road. Paul Pierce, the team’s 27 year-old all-star, had reached a point where he shooting percentage after January 2005 was the highest of his career; the previous two years of flirting with a sub .400 mark were well behind in the rear-view mirror.
The team was still a good three years away from serious contention, but, for the first time in a long time, it had a plan and a vision to get there. There would be no attempted shortcuts. The Danny Ainge approach was to build a team that could win 50 plus games for a decade and be a consistent legitimate contender. Considering what a terrible team Ainge inherited in 2003, the lack of lottery picks, and the inability to sign significant free agents, what Ainge had accomplished seemed extraordinary. Among hard core Celtics junkies, this author included, Ainge was a God. We had a future. It felt good.
Then matters got crazy as the trading deadline approached in late February. Brilliantly, Ainge parlayed Jiri Welsch into a Cleveland 2007 no. 1 draft pick. The same day Ainge traded a future no. 1 pick in effect for the remaining 27 games of Antoine Walker’s contract, and his Bird-rights as a free agent.
For two or three weeks this looked like Danny’s most amazing stroke of genius ever. Antoine played well, shooting much better than in his previous Boston stint when he was in the.390 range, and he rebounded as well. Moreover, Antoine was charismatic and delivered the leadership that Pierce and Blount were seemingly incapable of providing. There was little doubt that Antoine would be re-signed; the only question was for how long and for how much. The Cs ripped off a long winning streak and looked to be able to actually contend in the playoffs. It felt good, no great, to be a Cs fan in the month of March.
That seems like a century ago right now. The Cs slumped, and when they played poorly, they played very poorly. In New York, the Knicks blew them out of the gym. Early in the game the Cs, who came in riding an 11-1 streak, acted with the arrogance of a bunch of doped-up teenagers who were in a professional wrestling match. Paul Pierce was pounding his chest and pointing to his crotch and trash talking around Madison Square Garden about how great he was, all the while the Knicks demolished the Cs. It was embarrassing, and recalled the pre-season game when Pierce spit at the Cleveland bench in a fit of infantile machismo. It would be a forgettable moment, if it did not portend what would follow.
The Cs regrouped enough to win a few key games in April and get the home court in the play-offs, but the team of March was clearly no longer present. Much of it had to do with Walker, who returned to his pedestrian ways. By the end of the season it was clear that Antoine was not capable of playing with the top half of the 4s in the league. His best days were behind him, and he was frequently a hindrance as much as an asset on the court. By the end of the season it was already clear that he almost certainly would not return to the team. Antoine would want a multi-year contract and he would want to play serious minutes; those minutes would come at the expense of Jefferson and Perkins, and that would not be acceptable.
Or would it? This was where things get confusing. Was Danny Ainge abandoning his vision to accommodate owners, coaches, players and fans who were clamoring for short-term moderate success at the expense of being able to contend down the road? Danny was absolutely right that it was beneficial for the kids to play in a winning environment, so picking up Antoine to make a play-off run was understandable. The owners liked it, too. But signing him beyond the season would not advance the cause. If Antoine returns, it is a sign that short-term pressures have overwhelmed Danny’s willingness or ability to stay the course.
Danny spent a no. 1 pick to get into the playoffs in 2005 and to get home-court advantage in the first round. On the face of it, not a smart move. Danny rolled the dice, hoping there was a new Antoine – a passing, rebounding, smarter shooting Antoine – and he lost.
The first round of the play-offs also highlighted how far the Cs are from contending. While the young kids all have talent, they need work, and patience must be the order of the day. And it just may be that they are not that good. None of them is going to be a star next year. Tony Allen, for example, saw his game slide over the course of the season. If the Cs are going to make a commitment to give the kids serious minutes next season, it will require a willingness to possibly slip back into the lottery. The Boston sportswriters will all go insane at the thought, but so be it. This might have been a problem with winning 45 games, it gave morons like Peter May the grounds to believe that anything less than that next year is a major step backwards. In fact, the Cs could go 39-43 next year and take a major step forward, if Big Al, Perk, Allen and West all become starting caliber players.
Going into next year, it seems clear that Indiana, Detroit, Miami and Chicago will all field much better teams than the Cs. Washington probably will. And all five of those teams could be good for many years. That leaves three slots for the play-offs. New Jersey and Orlando and Philadelphia and Cleveland all look to be in a position to be as good as the Cs. A couple of them could bust a move, as each has serious young stud talent on board. It would not be far-fetched for a couple of those 4 teams to win 45-50 games next season. In short, the eastern conference is not the basket case it was three or four years ago when Jim O’Brien took a roster of journeymen to the conference finals. That team would be a lottery team in the 2005-06 eastern conference. The Cs could be a better team next year and not make the play-offs. That’s a fact. And if we keep our eye on the prize, that should not bother us.
But the realization that the kids have a ways to go was hardly cause for concern; cooler heads always knew not to raise expectations too high. The real questions concerned the coach, Doc Rivers, and the veteran players, especially Paul Pierce.
Rivers was dealt a tough hand, as Danny Ainge repeatedly noted. He had many kids and many veterans, and little in between. He was trying to install a new system – a very good system, in my opinion -- and the veterans were not necessarily comfortable with it. Over the course of the year, he backed down. By the end of the season the Cs ran what might be the one of the worst fast breaks in basketball history. More often then not when they had an advantage on the break, they would throw up some miserable low-percentage shot or turn the ball over. It was really ugly. I like Doc, and think he needs another year or two. But the jury is out on him. His strength is getting individual players to develop their games. Only Mark Blount was a disappointment this season individually under Doc’s tutelage. That is pretty impressive. Doc’s weakness is as a game coach, mapping strategy. Rick Carlisle basically ate his lunch in the playoffs. By the seventh game Carlisle had Doc’s half-court offense twisted into such a pretzel it was something of a surprise that the Cs didn’t shoot at the wrong basket. It is unclear how much of that is Doc’s fault and how much of that can be laid on the players. Time will tell.
Pierce’s disgraceful behavior in game 6 and his idiotic technical in game 7 have been discussed ad nauseum. What is most troubling, of course, is that Pierce seems to think his behavior is entirely acceptable. The irony is that, except for his lousy 3 point shooting, Pierce is probably playing the best ball of his career. And if Pierce ever got on board with a running offense, his game would thrive. He could be one of the top 10 players in the league – he is only 27. He plays very hard and is a warrior. But he seems to be permanently immature, and not especially intelligent. It is hard to love him. His game could degenerate just as easily as it could develop. This is why they pay Danny the big bucks.
So the Cs enter the off-season in a state of limbo I would have thought unlikely three months ago. Payton and Walker should be let go. That leaves 10 players. Pierce probably stays because, as Danny has said, no prospective deal makes any sense. Danny says he wants to sign a free agent point guard to replace Payton. Let’s hope he doesn’t get too hung up on this. I would not mind letting West and Banks get the minutes next year. Let’s see what they can do. Let’s sign a bench guy, a third stringer, not someone who will soak up minutes from West and Banks.
None of the other veterans have much trade value. Davis has value, but what we get in return is less than what we give so we might as well keep him. In that case, it looks like the roster will remain pretty much intact.
It seems clear that the free agent priorities are for a back-up point guard and a back-up veteran power forward. Neither of these signings would be major, and probably neither would be for more than two or three years, if even that long. Danny will clearly put a premium on character-guys. That gets us a roster of 12. We have 3 open slots, and we have three draft choices.
Ah, the draft. This is where Danny shines. Even if a number of players withdraw before the draft, the depth this year is staggering. Danny is going to have an opportunity to draft a great talent with the 18th pick in the first round. This might be a deeper draft than 2004. There will almost certainly be 5-10 players who will have great NBA careers picked between 18 and 35 in the 2005 draft. One or two may become all-stars. Danny will have the first crack at them. I like our chances. And the depth extends deep into round 2. Danny should be able to come up with two legit prospects at 50 and 53. This may be the best year for second round picks ever.
Of course the key to successful drafting is to ignore need and draft the best talent. That is a discussion for another article.
The C's rotation for 2005-06 looks something like this:
5: LaFrentz, Perkins, Blount
4: Jefferson, Free Agent
3: Pierce, Reed
2: Allen, Davis
1: West, Banks, Free Agent
Plus three draft choices.
I like that team, especially if Big Al, Perk, Allen and West get serious minutes. I might start going crazy if Danny’s no. 1 pick has star talent. If Paul somehow grows up, then start talking contender. But that is a lot of ifs. I am patient above all else. Next year is not about advancing to the eastern conference finals. That ain’t gonna happen. It is about laying a foundation to become consistent 50-55 game winners for a decade. I hope Danny stays the course. As St. Just said, he who makes a revolution half-way is only digging his own grave. |
