| The Fate Of The Celtics Franchise: Keep Antoine Or Not Authored by Carl Setterland - May 23, 2005 - 3:10 pm
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Let us not forget, Paul Pierce was thrown out of a key game 6 during the crucial closing seconds of regulation for physical showing Jamaal Tinsley that he could keep his hands away from Paul's face. Let us also not forget that Antoine Walker, upon being thrown out of Game 3, scraped referee Tom Washington out of his way while trying to plead his case to Bennett Salvatore, earning himself a one game suspension. But in all this remembering is it fit for us to forget that for his convincing performance, Jamaal Tinsley became the second black man to win Best Actor? Shall we forget the mysterious nature of Paul's first technical (called while he was being fouled)? Do we put out of mind that the technicals called on Antoine were equally as controversial? We should not. We should remember that in our stars faults, there was also greatness. Let us remember along with the bad was Pierce's heroic 30 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds and 5 blocks in Game 4 and Antoine's 20 second half points including a memorable overtime in which he carried us on his shoulders. Let us remember vividly that in that embarassing Game 7 Walker and Pierce still came through combining for 39 points on 47% shooting, up from their series average of 37 points on 46% shooting.
We showed flashes in the Indiana series. Brilliant one moment and horrendous the next. So is the sign of a talented but inexperienced team, a team on the verge. Eastern Conference powers Detroit and Indiana have walked this fence before. Developing youth while maintaining a playoff level. It's a fine line and it requires patience. And it also requires decisions. During the summer of '05 Danny Ainge will be faced with a choice to make. Let's call this the question. The great question of these Boston Celtics. Do we keep Antoine Walker? Complicated is the answer and in this game of chess we call personnel moves, Ainge has three options: Let Antoine walk, work out a sign-and-trade with Antoine or re-sign him. Why don't we look deeper into each of these options.
Let Antoine Walk
This option is the least likely path we choose. Of course, Antoine is an unrestricted free agent and can go anywhere he wants, but Antoine has openly said his heart is in Boston, and that he likes being a Celtic. The only teams with the cap room to satisfy the kind of salary demands Antoine would make are the Atlanta Hawks, the Charlotte Bobcats, the Seattle Supersonics, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Chicago Bulls. Of these teams none seems to be a possible destination for Antoine. The only team out of these six in need of a power forward are the Atlanta Hawks, the teams Antoine was just traded from. The only real money out there being thrown at Walker right now are teams' mid-level exceptions, which amount to just about 5 million dollars (not the sum 'Toine is seeking). This means Antoine is probably seeking to do a deal with the Celtics, whether it be to play on our teams or to work out a sign-and-trade.
So now the question is whether or not the Celtics are seeking a deal with Antoine. The only scenarios in which we would not want to cut some kind of deal with Antoine would be if his price has gone above what we are willing to pay or if the owners are seeking to cut salary. Neither of these seem very probable. Therefore we can rule out letting Antoine walk for nothing. On to our second option involving Antoine...
Work Out a Sign-&-Trade
This is the option that appeals to most fans of the Celtics. We have Al Jefferson, a star in the waiting, already playing power forward, so isn't it redundant to re-sign Antoine when he really can't play any position other than power forward? There are other needs to tend to including PG and a big S, not to mention that Ainge would never turn down a future #1 pick. Antoine could turn out to be a hindrance more than a help in Big Al's progress, so isn't it about time we show him the door? The problem is that the trade options are far and few in between. If Antoine were to agree to a sign-&-trade he would want to go to a competitor or a team on the verge and make upwards of 7 million a year. The problem is that there is no shortage of power forwards in the NBA right now and with a strong draft class of power forwards, there are a few suitors, but certainly not a lot. The potential deals for Antoine could be:
to New Jersey for Clifford Robinson and 2 future #1 picks
This deal is unlikely because although Ainge had no problem handing Rasheed Wallace to Detroit, he would probably rather keep Antoine than have to see him help nestle New Jersey into the #3 seed while only receiving a couple late first round draft picks in return.
to Orlando for Kelvin Cato, pick #11 and pick #38
One of the more intriguing possibilities. Walker would help form a deadly frontcourt in Orlando alongside Dwight Howard, Grant Hill and Hedo Turkoglu. Cato provides a defensive minded backup, something we need in our frontcourt. The picks are also intriguing but in such a chaotic draft year who's to say that a guy available at #11 like Danny Granger or Antoine Wright is worth the production and leadership Antoine supplies. I think Ainge ends up mulling this but passing.
to Houston with Mark Blount for Bob Sura, Clarence Weatherspoon and pick #24
Maybe the best option available. Sura gives the backcourt the veteran leadership they will lack if Payton doesn't return but Sura also supplies a spark in the lineup. Swapping Weatherspoon for Blount is for salary purposes and #24 gives Ainge the chance to find the Delonte West of this draft. In the end this is probably a move the Celtics would make, but would the Rockets do it. They need a legit power forward but do they get one at the cost of fiscal repercussions (Blount) and the much needed youth infusion the pick would bring?
to Memphis for Jason Williams and pick #19
This is another intriguing deal. In it we would get a legit point guard who likes to run and another top 20 draft pick. It was rumored that Jerry West made a pass at Antoine back when he was with the Lakers and I think Memphis would pull the trigger to get the "star power" Jerry West craves. The question arises, why do reports have the Grizzlies so desperate to get rid of Jason Williams and can Doc Rivers handle yet another eccentric personality in the backcourt? Not to mention, does Williams fit into Danny's new movement to clean up the Celtics behaviour? In the end this is a toss up deal. Either Ainge see in Williams the same things he saw in Ricky Davis or he doesn't think the kid is worth it.
to Sacramento for Cuttino Mobley
A last possibility, but probably not the least likely. Reports have Mike Bibby as the Kings player Ainge has his eye on, but I don't see him going anywhere soon. While Sacramento wins talent-wise, they'd need to do this expecting to be able to move Kenny Thomas or Darius Songaila for a replacement PF. Mobley is the sharpshooter the Boston offense needs, but he is only 6-4, hasn't found a shot he wouldn't take, and finds himself playing defense only once or twice a game. I know Ainge focuses on scoring, but Mobley has weaknesses even more glaring than Antoine, which is why we decline.
As you can see, the sign-&-trade possibilities are there, but they all involve Boston giving up the best player in the deal. While in a few of the deals (Orlando, Houston, Memphis), we receive good value, we are in essence, trading quality for quantity and/or trading production for potential. Don't get me wrong, Jason Williams and #19 sounds tempting, but is greater depth really our need right now. As Ainge has said, we are 'kiddied out', and even if the new CBA produces a developmental league where we could send Perkins, Reed and our picks, that still leaves us 9 deep, and that's without the backup PG Ainge has discussed signing.
Aside from Clifford Robinson, none of these guys are the veteran leaders this team needs to help go to the next level. Antoine provides leadership in the locker room and an example of how to conduct yourself off the court. He is a big piece of the Celtics, part of the glue that holds us together, and none of the players received in these sign-&-trades possess the same type qualities (except for the aforementioned Uncle Cliffy). Therefore, although the options are there, there probably isn't a deal out there worth trading away Antoine. Don't cross out the sign-&-trade option, but don't look at it as the best option either. This leaves us with...
Re-sign Antoine Walker
Last but not least, this is the option many fans dreaded me coming to. The fact is, that Antoine is an 18/8 type player, a fierce competitor and a leader. He whines, he jacks up an airball every ten or so shots and shoots under 60% from the line, but at the price he'll cost -- around 6-7 million -- he's worth every penny. Take the .666 winning % as proof, we need this guy's leadership. We're a team filled with kids, who aren't quite veterans yet and don't know how to handle themselves in a lot of situations. A hindrance to Jefferson's development you say? With the kind of frame Al Jefferson has, and after a full summer of hitting the gym, he will be able to handle around 10-15 minutes at center every game, similar to Jermaine O'Neal. Between playing at center and backing up Antoine, Jefferson will still get him 30 minutes a game, which is probably all he'll be able to handle next year.
The question is not whether Antoine fits into the equation five years from now, it's about next year. Next year, there will still be a role big enough on the Celtics to fit Antoine Walker's needs. Three years from now, maybe we'll know Al Jefferson is exclusively a power forward, and a damn good one that needs 40 minutes a game. Does re-signing Antoine mean he is with us after the summer of 2006? No, not really. Right now the trading options aren't great, and the price is low. Keep Antoine Walker and wait until next year when Chris Webber is on his last half leg and when New Orleans, New York, Cleveland and Milwaukee need only a legit PF to get out of the lottery. Wait till next year when the draft class is stronger and it is more of a seller's market than what we are seeing now.
As of today, there is still a role for Antoine on the Celtics. Ainge has a choice to make this summer, whether it is the right move to keep Antoine or to trade him. I respect whatever decision Ainge makes, but after reviewing all the options and the current state of our team, I think the choice is obvious. Keep employee #8. |
