| Does Ainge Have Another Ace Up His Sleeve For This Year's Draft? Authored by Carl Setterlund - June 22, 2005 - 1:08 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | Final Thoughts On The 2008 NBA Draft This year's draft was decidedly more calm and casual than the Oden/Durant showdown, which made for a more candid and personal experience.
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Just two short seasons ago, Boston was strapped with three max players, an aging group of vets, little depth, and multiple unsuccessful draft prospects. No longer are those days, because while the success has come slightly less, there is hope for this team. We are young. How young? The youngest team in the playoffs kind of young. There are weaknesses on this team, but are there gaping holes? No. Look around my fellow Celtic fans, we have young talent everywhere. So much talent that it's hard knowing what Danny desires to add most.
Examining the front court, we find future post presence Al Jefferson. A rebounder, a shot blocker and a player who can, at his tender age, already score at will. He is the future at power forward. A likely all-star in a few seasons, a number one option who will demand 35 or more minutes a night soon. Looking at the center position, another HS stud, Kendrick Perkins waits in the wings. While lacking a vast offensive repetoire, Perkins looks like the future a center. A dominant defensive player, rebounder and shot blocker, Perkins has the potential to dominate the floor defensively. Add into the equation, that we have two other big men (LaFrentz and Blount), locked into big deals that do not end until the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons respectively. Veteran leader Antoine Walker might also be brought back this summer depending on his price tag. While I'm not trying to imply that all three of these aging big men will be on the roster next year, it is unlikely we move more than one of them. The frontcourt will probably be too full to accomodate a big man at #18. This is not to say that Ainge will rule out talented projects like Andray Blatche, Andrew Bynum or Randolph Morris, but drafting an NBA ready big man probably lacks appeal to Ainge. Therefore, guys like Diogu, Simien, May and Villanueva can be eliminated from Celtic rumors.
Looking at the other positions, we can easily eliminate shooting guards from talks. While they often play small forward, Paul Pierce and Ricky Davis lack the necessary height to dominate there and are better suited at shooting guard. Second year players Delonte West and Tony Allen will crowd the position even more. So at this point, it is realistic to assume wingmen 6-6 and under will be passed on by Ainge (barring a gem like Wright still being available at #18). Thusly, we can eliminate players like Rashad McCants, Monta Ellis and Matt Walsh.
This leaves us with point guard and small forward as the two likeliest positions. It's no secret what Ainge wants. It's widely known that he would prefer a tall point guard and that he feels this team needs a big small forward. There are two possible point guard prospects that may be around at #18, Jarrett Jack and Roko Leni Ukic. It's widely debated who is the better of the two. Over the weekend the Celtics had them workout against each other, an important workout that will help decide who they rate higher. Jack is the more polished player. He's stronger and has a more proven track record, leading his team, Geogia Tech, in his sophmore year to the NCAA Championship Game. Jack is a big player who plays lock down defense and reminds some of Chauncey Billups. However, Roko Ukic is taller, younger and possesses better court vision. Both are hard workers, and I'd say Ukic is smidge more talented as a pure PG, which is what the Celtics need. Both have looked good in workouts and are likely gone after Toronto at #16, but if available, don't be suprised to see Ainge snatch one of them up.
With a point guard not likely to be available, there are two directions to go with #18. Either Ainge can choose another big man project, or take one of his lusted after, big small forwards. I don't have any sources to confirm this but I have a hunch both Randolph Morris and Andrew Bynum will withdraw from this draft. Morris has not impressed in workouts and likely won't get a top 25 guarantee and Bynum has too good of a family base around him to let him make a poor decision by skipping tutoring by Jim Calhoun. Scratch these guys. Left are guys like Andray Blatche, Chris Taft and Johan Petro. Written on Taft's forehead is underachiever, which will likely scare Ainge and many other teams away. Imagine Taft, learning his trade from another inspired Pittsburg grad, Mark Blount. Not something many of us would look forward to. Petro is the exact opposite, drawing comparisons to Nene because of his body and mean streak. He will slip because of the euro backlash, but don't expect an inspired, legit 7-footer to fall into our laps. This leaves us Andray Blatche, a wiry, 6-11 PF who everyone has been hush hush about. Word is the Blatche has a nice outside game, but is also a decent rebounder and is willing to learn to play closer to the basket. Where he goes depends on whether it looks like his frame can hold more muscle. He seems to have the work ethic and could be a steal at #18 when he will most likely still be around.
Left are the big small forwards, and just Ainge's luck, this draft is packed with them. I'll just run off a short list for you: Korolev, Ilyasova, Webster, Garcia, Warrick, Hodge, Lee, Gelabale, Gigli and Maxiell. These are all possible selections at small forward in our portion of the draft. I included power forwards like Warrick, Lee, Gigli and Maxiell who I think are athletic enough to fit the mold. Yaroslav Korolev is the most talented of the bunch, and he is either a product of excessive hype or he's the next Toni Kukoc or the next Skita. Either way, his stock is rising so fast there's little chance he slips past Indiana. So eliminate Korolev.
Let's look at the euros. Ersan Ilyasova is a 6-9, 18 year old, classic European prospect. He was considered a better prospect than Korolev until breaking his ankle last year. His recovery has been slow, but he's still on people's radar. He is a high risk, high reward type of selection, but I don't believe Ainge will take the chance. A big small forward is too important to end up wasting a pick on a guy who might never be the same as he once was. Angelo Gigli is another talented player, who reminds many of a softer Raef LaFrentz. At 6-11, Gigli is tall enough, but his body is rather weak. He's a decent prospect, but may end up being too redundant for our taste. I don't know a great deal about Gelabale. I don't think we'll pick him simply because he doesn't seem to have as high a ceiling as the other guys.
Hakim Warrick is a possible selection, but I don't like his tools. True, he was successful at the college level and that often translates to the NBA, but Warrick was not dominant like former teammate Carmelo Anthony. I see Warrick and his uber-athleticism going to New Jersey at #15 where they can plug him in at PF and run all day. Even if he falls to #18, his offense is mainly dunks. This is good for our fast breaking, but what happens when we are in a half-court set?
Another option is Jason Maxiell, the 6-6 big man out of Bob Huggins' program who is built like a tank. Maxiell has an incredible physique, and great athleticism to go with his very long arms. This makes up for what he loses in height. He's projected as an early second rounder but he may have worked his way into the late first. While he has a limited offensive game, there are already enough guys looking for their shots on the Celtics. Maxiell will be a dominant player defensively and could finally give us a guy to lock down athletic small forwards and power forwards. After his late first rounders last year, I wouldn't put it past Danny to select Jason here if he falls in love with the guy.
If Danny feels there are better choices than Maxiell, he could go for players like Francisco Garcia, Julius Hodge or David Lee. All three are uber-talented. Garcia is a long player with drive who does all the small things to help the team and is a little reminiscent of Tayshaun Prince. Hodge is another gritty, long player who carried NC State to the Sweet 16 this year. He came up clutch, performing both defensively and offensively. Hodge has a nice three and a couple good offensive moves. Hodge was once considered the next big time point forward because of his vision and his dribbling and passing skills. He has always had the talent to be a big time star, but has not yet been able to reach his full potential. Lee is a 6-9, athletic player from perennial underachievers, Florida. Because of his height he was forced to play out of position at, get this, center! Always overmatched and being beaten up in the middle, Lee wasn't able to ever become the dominant player his talent suggested. In the NBA he should have the chance to finally play at small forward and reach his potential. He's learned inside skills from his time at center, but also contains other great skills. He's a good shooter and dribbler, and is supposedly a great passer. I'd liken him to a less talented Lamar Odom. All of these guys are projected to be around in the mid to late twenties, but Danny has never been afraid to take a guy a few spots higher than projected. These three are serious possibilities.
Lastly is Martell Webster, who I think we will pick. This guy just makes too much sense. He measures out 6-7 and change, with an above average standing reach. Webster is a sharpshooter from outside and fits into the mold of how Ainge has selected his high schoolers. Kendrick Perkins slipped because of weight issues and Danny wisely gobbled him up. Al Jefferson slipped after a horrendous Chicago pre-draft combine. Webster did horrible, ranking 57th out of 75, and close to last among wingmen. This isn't necessarily encouraging, but it follows a trend. Webster will probably now slip out of the lottery to the late teens where he shouldn't still be around. He's a big talent who can stroke the ball from 3. The Celtics could use another 3pt shooter. Reports I've read say how humble this guy is and how he gets his but at the same time is unselfish. Webster could be the future outside threat of our Celts, and I think it will happen.
After examing the options available for the Celtics in this draft at #18, I have constructed a big board of the top 10 players I think are and/or should be on our radar along with comments.
1. Roko Leni Ukic - Tall, talented PG. The next big thing out of Europe.
2. Yaroslav Korolev - A lot of hype, might not be justified (?)
3. Jarrett Jack - Tough, proven PG. Strong and plays lockdown defense.
4. Johan Petro - Legit C with a mean streak.
I'm not expecting these guys to be around by the time the Celtics pick at #18
5. Martell Webster - HS project, freefalling but undeservedly.
6. Andray Blatche - The best kept secret of this year's draft.
These two high school projects are the two most likely choices.
7. David Lee - Our ideal big SF.
8. Julius Hodge - Tough, leader who could turn into a star.
9. Jason Maxiell - A tank. A SF form of Ben Wallace?
10. Francisco Garcia - Is and will be and underrated player.
If we walk away with any of these four, the draft still has to be considered a success.
So there you have it, a full analysis of what we can expect from the Celtics draft. If any of the top four were available, I have to believe Ainge would snatch them up, some because of need, and Petro purely based on talent. Webster is slipping and Blatche is a mystery. Danny has done so well drafting high schoolers, I don't see why he'd pass up on one of these two, considering their lottery type talent. There is an off chance that the first six are all gone by the time we pick. In that case I expect Danny to finally get his big small forward, and do so by means of a proven college player. I think Lee is the best fit out of the four, but Hodge is so talented and Garcia does so many things I could see either of them going there too. Some may think Maxiell is a reach, but he would give us an athletic player that will run, while at the same time giving us a dominant defensive presense to guard SFs and PFs who we have struggled against. Considering his success drafting proven college players, I could also see Ainge have any of the guys 7-10 rated at the top of his list, although I wouldn't say it is too likely. The draft approaches and Danny is in a position where he has a ton of options. This draft is so deep, and there is no surefire star he would feel obligated to pick. We will get whoever catches Danny's eye out of about 30 available players left with the talent to go at #18. As the draft approaches, much of this is still a mystery, but I think through the process of elimination we now have a legit list of 10 or so guys who Danny will pick one person from to be the next Boston Celtic. |
