| In Defense Of Dickau Authored by Jared L. Cantin - August 25, 2005 - 1:26 pm
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The truth is, Dan Dickau will never share a nickname with Gary Payton. He has in fact been more commonly described as "The Mitten" because he tends to give the player he is defending the hot hand. (I know, a mercilessly miserable play on words) However, as is often the case in the NBA, reputations tend to proceed players. The dangerous question now facing the Celtics is how bad defensively is Dan Dickau really?
The sample size for analysis with Dan "The Mitten" Dickau is much smaller than for most 26 year old NBA point guards. In fact, not until December 7th, 2004 did Dickau even begin to see considerable playing time in the NBA. Despite the small sample, a relatively accurate analysis of Dickau's defensive proficiency can be analyzed with a simple statistical comparison. Although admittedly not taking into consideration several important variables, comparing the game by game stats of Dickau versus the opposing team’s starting point guard will at least provide a general analysis as to the severity of Dickau's defensive liability.
To begin the comparison, I will take the monthly statistical averages for minutes, points, assists, rebounds, and turnovers for February, March and April, the final three months of this past NBA season. Although Dickau began actually playing for New Orleans in December, I will begin the analysis in February to allow Dickau and the league ample time to acclimate to his playing significant minutes.
Although defensive awards are often confined to steals and blocked shots, one of the most important aspects of defense is simply how much your man scores on you. As such, although omitting several variables (such as team defensive strength and actual game by game match-ups) and littered with generalizations, taking the opposing teams lead point guard's averages in points, assists, rebounds, and turnovers for each month, will give a rough estimate of how Dickau fared over the course of that particular month. If the opposing point guards shot nearly as hot as Dickau's wife is (can I get a WOW), then we know his defensive reputation is probably well deserved. If, however, Dickau was competitive with opposing point guards statistically while on a horrid New Orleans team, then maybe his defensive liability is slightly lesser than advertised.
February
February saw the emergence of Dickau as a potential starter in the NBA. His monthly averages of 16.2 points, 4.7 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 2.2 turnovers in 33.8 minutes would be warmly welcomed on next years Celtics team. However, if opposing guards were putting up "Lebronesque" numbers against Dickau, than his defensive liabilities could exceed his offensive value. The result, in February, opposing teams lead point guards (those that played the most minutes in the particular game) averaged 34.5 minutes per game, 16.4 points, 6.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.2 turnovers per game. For comparison purposes, when you compare these figures against Dickau's it is evident that although not a defensive stopper, "The Mitten" actually held opposing point guards to averages similar to that of his own. Dickau was -.2 in points, -1.5 in assists, -.4 in rebounds, even (0) in turnovers, and -1.7 in minutes per game. These are hardly numbers that indicate "The Mitten's" defensive shortcomings, particularly when you figure in the loathsome Hornets team he played for.
March
March was possibly Dickau's poorest month of the season. His shooting percentage dropped to a lowly 34.2 %; not coincidentally, his assist numbers jump to 5.9. Dickau's numbers in March were as follows: 29.1 minutes, 10.6 points, 5.9 assists, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.0 turnovers. His defensive trends however remained somewhat consistent as opposing point guards averaged 31.6 minutes, 12.4 points, 5.9 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 2.1 turnovers. For the month of March "The Mitten's" plus/minus averages (his stats minus other teams point guards stats) were -1.5 in minutes, -1.8 in points, even in assists, -.4 in rebounds, and +.1 in turnovers. These numbers are not overly alarming defensive deficiencies for Celtics faithful.
April
In the final month of the season, as the Hornets slowly limped across the finish line, Dickau did the same. Averaging 32.2 minutes, 11.5 points, 6.8 assists, 2.0 rebounds and 2.0 turnovers per game, Dickau again demonstrated his ability to rack up assists. However, his inconsistent shooting resulted in a 38.5% mark from the floor. On the bright side, Dickau did hit 94.6% of his free throws, which should be encouraging.
April saw opposing point guards enjoy a strong month against Dickau posting 32 minutes, 13.7 points, 7.5 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 2.6 turnovers. Dickau's plus/minus ratings of +.2 in minutes, -2.2 in points, -.7 in assists, -1.2 in rebounds, and +.6 in turnovers were somewhat uninspiring. The high assist number may indicate opposing point guards ability to penetrate and dish against Dickau, however the numbers are far from alarming when the Hornet factor is calculated in.
As mentioned, the analysis above is not an exact science. However, what is does demonstrate is that Dickau, although a shut down defender by no means, may have the offensive potential and court vision to compensate for his defensive shortcomings with a better team defense around him. In Dickau's worst month, opposing point guards only outscored him be an average of 2.2 points. On a team as miserable as the Hornets, that is not the end of the world. From what reports about Dickau have said, one would imagine that the Earl Watsons, and Gary Paytons of the world were putting up 20 plus nights on a regular basis. The fact is, in the three month period above, only six times did an opposing point guard put up over twenty points.
As is being reported, the Celtics are acquiring Dickau for approximately eight million over three years. Defensive short comings or not, this is a calculated gamble at worst. With an athletic defender in Marcus Banks and a promising Delonte West, a gamble on a play-maker like Dickau is really a win-win situation. Furthermore, on a young Celtics team with far more talent than last year's Hornets, Dickau can only expect his efficiency and defensive support to improve.
Although Dickau may in fact be a defensive liability, his opponents offensive production does not appear to warrant the terrible defensive reputation he has developed. Although he does not appear to be a savior, he “The Mitten” cannot be ruled out as a solid contributor, and decent bargain. It simply appears that Celtics fans have to deal with another decent signing, of a potentially above average player (See Scalabrine)..."not that there's anything wrong with that". |
