| The Danny Challenge: The C's Future And The Magnificent Seven Authored by Elrod Enchilada - April 15, 2006 - 11:44 pm
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Mike Gorman: Okay. And a final question here from Paul Durand and I think you kind of answered it but I want to give Paul a shot. "Danny I'd like to say I'm extremely excited about the future of this young club and I'm very optimistic about the future. What one piece of the puzzle remains to make this a top three team in the Eastern conference and to eventually compete for a chance at the NBA title for many years to come?"
Danny Ainge: Well I'll tell you what. You know, obviously I would say that the simple answer is we need some of our young players to become great players - not just good, young potential. We need them to develop into something special whether it's a post man, whether it's a center, whether it's a point guard. We need one or two of these guys to really step up and take their game to another level.
Danny’s point here is that we have several intriguing young talents – seven by my count – and their development is the key to how far this team will go. If a couple of these guys emerge as stars, true all-stars, then the Cs will become a very good team. Put them along side Paul and Wally, and we will rock. Down the road – not too soon, I hope -- we will probably trade one or two of them to fill pressing needs and maybe pick up an MLE free agent or two along the way. But the fate of the Danny Era rests to no small extent on whether some of the following seven become magnificent. If none of them get much better than they are playing now, this team is going to be a lotto team for a while still, and Danny will leave town having failed. Paul, too, will leave town in a few years, if not sooner, the Ernie Banks of the NBA.
With that in mind, let’s assess the progress of our Magnificent Seven based upon this year’s performances. I will go from centers to point guards, bigs to smalls, with a twist at the end. My assumption is good health. Serious injuries of the kind that end or warp careers are not anticipated in my prognostications.
1. KENDRICK PERKINS…center…age 21…third season
Kendrick Perkins has had a very good season, as good as anyone could have hoped for. When someone looks for the plusses in the 2005-06 season, Perkins heads the list along with West and Gomes. He is still a college junior age-wise, yet has established himself as the Cs starting center. He is an outstanding rebounder and shot blocker, and with starter’s minutes he will almost certainly be in the top ten, if not a league leader, in both categories. He is a good defender with the potential to be a great defender. His weaknesses are on the offensive end where he is not much of a scorer and looks clumsy in the low post. But he has a better shooting touch than one might imagine – at one point he hit 15 of 16 free throws – and while he is turnover prone, he is also an above average passer. This has been a great year for Kendrick and it seems like he is going to improve a great deal with more playing time. Big men take time and the development of big men often has as much to do with work ethic and intensity as it does physical tools. That is why Bill Laimbeer had a great career while vastly more talented players like Benoit Benjamin, Eddy Curry, Kwame Brown, Michael Olowokandi, et al have flopped or failed to achieve stardom. Perk has a tremendous attitude and work ethic and is a personal favorite. I like his chances, and do not doubt for a second that GMs around the league would love to plant his butt in the middle of their line-ups for the next decade.
Prognosis:
- 1/2 in 7 chance: In three years time Kendrick Perkins will be a max-contract superstar. He will be a Ben Wallace type center with much better passing and shooting skills. He will be the heart and soul of a year-in, year-out 50 plus win team.
- 3 1/2 in 7 chance: In three years Kendrick will establish himself as a solid NBA starting caliber center, who can play on a winning team, but will not be an all-star. He will have a contract over the MLE level.
- 2 in 7 chance: In three years Kendrick will establish himself as a rotation caliber player. A starter maybe on a losing team and a back-up on a good team.
At any rate, even at his worst I see Kendrick Perkins as having a role on this team and in this league for the next 10-12 years. He belongs.
2. BIG AL JEFFERSON…power forward…age 21…second season
It now seems a very long time ago that just about everyone who followed the Cs thought it would only be a year or two before Big Al established himself as a 20-10 guy and as an annual participant in the all-star game. His offensive instincts, his rebounding and shot blocking, were extraordinary for a 20 year old kid. More than a few Cs fans ranked him a superior player to Paul Pierce. The sort of low post moves Al Jefferson demonstrates cannot be taught and cannot be learned, any more than a summer cram session could turn Orien Green into Gerald Green offensively. My, how matters have changed in less than a year. Injury problems largely derailed his second season, and with them came the recognition that he may not have the sort of work ethic associated with all-star NBA players. Some folks now want to vote Big Al off the island. I think Celtics Nation has overreacted. A look at Big Al’s statistics show no great improvement in his second season, but no drop-off either. His defense and court awareness seemed better -- reflected in assists, steals, taking charges, and fewer fouls – but he was only truly healthy for a few weeks. And it is worth noting that in those few weeks when he was healthy, before his last ankle sprain, Big Al played the best ball of his career. At times he was sparkling. This summer and next year are going to be pivotal for Big Al’s development. Count me as one who thinks Big Al has a very good chance to blow our minds again in the next few years. He has to make a commitment to getting in great shape and develop a mid-range jumper. If he can do that and build on his given talent, look out. Danny and Doc are hoping this season has served as a wake-up call for Big Al, and has demonstrated to him that if he thinks he can coast on his gifts and have a great NBA career, he is dreaming. Let’s hope he has gotten that message. We will find out pretty soon. At any rate, he is a definite keeper, and patience is the order of the day.
Prognosis:
- 1 1/2 in 7 chance: In three years Big Al will be an all-star power forward averaging 22-25 ppg and getting 10-12 rpg and 2 bpg. He will be one of the very best 4s in the NBA, a max-contract player who will see his number in the rafters.
- 3 1/2 in 7 chance: In three years Big Al will be a quality starter but not a regular all-star. More like a 15-18 ppg, 9 rpg guy. A career similar to Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Joe Smith.
- 2 in 7 chance: In three years Big Al will establish himself as a rotation caliber player. A starter maybe on a losing team and a back-up on a good team. A more gifted Tractor Traylor.
At any rate, even at his worst I see Big Al Jefferson as having a role on this team and in this league for the next 10-12 years. He belongs.
3. RYAN GOMES…power forward/small forward…age 23…first season
Ryan Gomes has been an absolute revelation this season. He is a smart player who finds open spaces to get wide open shots. He has a nice offensive game, with a decent mid-range jumper. He makes free throws. He is a decent passer. He is professional in his approach to the game. Ryan Gomes is the sort of guy every team wants. The issue with Ryan remains where, exactly, does he play. He is only 6-6 and change, and he is no leaper, so he is at a disadvantage at the 4. As this season has worn on, these limitations have become more evident. For a 4 he is an average rebounder whereas as a 3 he is a very good rebounder. My own sense is that for Ryan to become the best possible player he will have to play primarily at the 3, extend the range on his shot, and establish his post game. At his best, as a 3, I think Ryan can become possibly a very good offensive player, averaging in the high teens. I also think he will be able to be adequate defensively at the 3. But I think he probably ends up as a career swing forward, depending upon the team he is on and match-ups. And I think his chance of becoming a superstar is so remote I do not list it as a possibility below.
Prognosis:
- 31/2 in 7 chance: In three years Ryan will be a decent quality starter in the NBA, probably a 3. He will be a 15 ppg guy with 8 rpg and maybe 3 apg. He will not be an all-star but any team would welcome him into their line-up. Maybe a Jerome Kersey type of career.
- 2 1/2 in 7 chance: In three years Ryan will establish himself as a rotation caliber player. A starter maybe on a losing team and a back-up on a good team. He will pretty much remain at the level he is at now.
- 1 in 7 chance: In three years Ryan is not a rotation caliber guy and is a journeyman who may end up in Europe, where he is teammates with Orien Greene.
4. GERALD GREEN…small forward/shooting guard…age 20…first year
This year’s Al Jefferson. His play over the past two weeks has been breath-taking. He has probably produced as many dazzling highlight clips in the past few weeks as any Celtic I can remember. He has been a revelation. It is not just the picture perfect jump shot with 3 point range, or the mind-boggling dunking ability. And it is not just the staggering athletic ability. Rather, it is Gerald Green’s ability to create great shots without picks by himself and then make the shots, usually of the mid-range variety. He is therefore truly unstoppable. This is a talent that very, very few players have. Their names are Kobe, LeBron, Iverson, and McGrady, and they tend to average in the neighborhood of 30 points per game. As much as I admire Paul Pierce, he did not have the offensive tools Gerald Green has when he was 20 years old. Green could be an offensive dynamo like George Gervin or Dominique Wilkins, or he could be a more complete superstar like MJ or Kobe. The issue for Green is whether he develops his talent and pushes himself or whether he pulls a Darius Miles and coasts. The preliminary signals are very good concerning his attitude and work ethic. He will almost certainly be a good scorer and have a fine career. What remains to be seen is how much of a competitive fire burns deep within his soul. Guys like Darius Miles and Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis like to win. Guys like Bill Russell and Michael Jordan and Larry Bird have to win. Ultimately, the size of the competitive fire will determine if we are looking at a peer for Russell, Hondo, and Bird, or at someone a notch or two or three below. The tools are already there to see – Gerald Green can become one of the greatest offensive players in the game. This talent only comes along rarely. Gerald Green will not hit his prime for another five-seven years, but if he is as good as we hope, he will show it very soon, like next year.
At the same time, it is very early to judge Gerald Green and make any definitive prognostication. He could possibly fall flat on his face. It could emerge that he has real holes in his game that he cannot overcome and that we don’t worry about these now because we are so dazzled with his talents. I think we need one more season to make a prognosis, but I will do so to remain consistent. This prognosis, more than any of the others, is subject to change on a moment’s notice.
Prognosis:
- 11/2 in 7 chance: In five years Gerald Green will be a superstar, one for the ages, scoring 25-30 ppg and having a complete game. People reading this article will be among the happiest people on the face of the earth, and the Cs will be a damned good team til around 2020.
- 4 1/2 in 7 chance: In five years Gerald Green will be a quality starter but not a regular all-star. He will be a solid scoring wing. A souped-up and vastly superior version of Ron Mercer.
- 1 in 7 chance: In five years Gerald Green will establish himself as a rotation caliber player. A starter maybe on a losing team and a back-up on a good team.
It is already clear that Gerald Green is no Kedrick Brown, the 2001 lotto pick who could sink 40 footers and jump out of the gym. Brown had no clue how to play the game of basketball and he made Darius Miles look like Alonzo Mourning in the work ethic department. Green is going to have a long career. It is only to be determined if he will be decent, good, great, or transcendental. The ball is in his court.
5. TONY ALLEN…shooting guard/point guard…age 24…second year
Poor Tony Allen. Had he been the Cs top draft pick in just about any year between 1981 and 2003, except for 1998, people would have been salivating over him. A stud athlete, superb defender, intense competitor with a surprisingly soft touch on his jumper. By the middle of Tony Allen’s first year he had pushed Jiri Welsch to the bench and then off to Cleveland. At his best his play was catalytic at both ends of the floor. But Tony Allen got lost in the shuffle, what with Big Al and all the other young kids on the team. When he dominated the summer league, scoring at will and showing point guard skills, Doc predicted he would have a break-out season. Then the s&*t hit the fan. Tony hurt his knee and got arrested in a melee in Chicago. When he returned to the team in mid-season, his play was horrible. He looked like a different player, a guy who barely belonged in the league. Much of Celtic Nation was ready to throw him under the train. Fortunately, Danny and Doc stayed with him. Over the past month his play has returned to last year’s level, and he is still not 100 percent physically. But Tony’s stats are still off from last year and no indication of the quality of his game when healthy. If he stays out of jail, he looks like he will have a very fine career in the NBA. Although only 6-3 and change, he can defend 1s, 2s, or many 3s. And while he is no point guard, he can fake it every now and then. But he is a textbook 2 guard. His main weakness is that he is unlikely to be a great scorer at the 2 spot. But he has surprising and varied offensive tools, so it is not at all clear that he cannot become a quality scorer in due time. And he has the ability to be a stud defensive stopper, and all-NBA defender year in and year out.
Prognosis:
- 3 in 7 chance: In three years Tony Allen will be a quality starter but not a regular all-star. He will be a star defender and a solid 15-17 ppg guy. He will have a salary well above the MLE level. Think Cuttino Mobley with a bit less scoring and a lot more defense. A very nice career, enough to get #42 retired if we win a flag or two.
- 3 in 7 chance: In three years TA will establish himself as a rotation caliber player. A starter maybe on a losing team and a back-up on a good team. A defensive specialist. He will pretty much remain at the level he is at now.
- 1 in 7 chance: In three or four years TA will be bouncing around the league, or the prison system, unable to stick anywhere and not have much of a career to talk about.
6. DELONTE WEST…point guard…age 22…second year
Along with Perk, Delonte West has been the most dramatically improved player this season for the Cs. Last year he only played 500 minutes and barely found his rhythm. He came into this season an unknown. This year he has taken over the 1 position and is playing a steady 34 minutes per game. What is striking is that Delonte was a 2 guard in college. When one factors in that it is difficult to play the point in the NBA under any circumstances – and it usually takes years to get up to speed – to do so having not played the position in college is even more stunning. There is a lot to like about Delonte. He is a good defender, a good shooter who may become a great shooter, and he has a tremendous personality and dedication to the team and to the game. He is a keeper, and is going to have a long and successful career in the NBA. The only question with West is whether he is a pure point guard, or whether he will have to be a swing guard, and the team will need to find a starting point guard to replace him. My own judgment is that Delonte is a point guard and a starter, but we need another season to know for certain.
Prognosis:
- 4 in 7 chance: In three years Delonte West will be a quality starter but not a regular all-star. He will have a long career and earn a salary well above the MLE level. He can qb a team to a title, assuming he is not expected to be one of the two best players on the team.
- 3 in 7 chance: In three years Delonte West will establish himself as a rotation caliber player. A starter maybe on a losing team and a back-up on a good team. He will pretty much remain at the level he is at now.
7. 2006 NUMBER ONE DRAFT CHOICE…???...???...???
This pick will be the highest pick the Cs have had since Chauncey Billups and Ron Mercer in 1997. Although it is a weak draft – and the elimination due to the new labor deal of one of the best high school classes in history will hurt -- there will be a fine prospect available at 6, 7 or 8, where the Cs will most likely draft. There is also a chance the Cs might land in the top 3, and there will clearly be a stud available there.
This is an extremely important draft choice for Danny. It will be (one hopes) his last opportunity to pick so high, and he needs to take advantage of it. The one thing we can say with certainty is that Danny will draft the very best prospect available, regardless of position. This is mandatory, and I will write about it perhaps as the draft draws nearer. What it means is that if Danny thinks the best prospect on the board in a wing, he will take a wing, even though the Cs needs are greater at the 1 or the 5.
Look at what Danny said in the teleconference:
Mike Gorman: Next question comes from Rich DeMarco and I know in advance of reading this here that you're going to be limited somewhat by NBA rules. But Rich asks, "I know you had a chance to attend the NCAA tournament recently. Now that you're back and have had time to assess some of the talent can you let us know your thoughts on some of the better players and how any of them could possibly fit into the Celtics 2006 draft plans?"
Danny Ainge: Well, you know what? There are a lot of guys who could fit in. We are not so solid in any position. And, you know, one thing to remember as we come into this draft there's the danger [in drafting for 'need' in the draft]. I use the Portland Trailblazers as an example. They had a good, young, talented player in Zach Randolph, and so they passed on Al Jefferson and they drafted Sebastian Telfair because they really needed a point guard.
So then the next year Chris Paul was there for them to draft at number three and they passed on him and draft Martell Webster because they already had a point guard. It's very dangerous to draft for need, especially high in the draft when you've got to - even though you might have a log jam at a certain position - you've got to take the best player.
The one comforting thought as we approach the draft is that Danny has already established himself as one of the great drafters in recent NBA history. Just look at the above six guys. Not a single lotto pick in the group, yet six superior lotto-worthy prospects. I doubt that record has ever been equaled by any GM in NBA history over three consecutive drafts. Not even close. That is big-time talent evaluation.
Go, Danny, Go. |
