| Danny In The Spotlight: Here Comes The Draft Authored by Elrod Enchilada - June 19, 2006 - 1:10 pm
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This year’s draft is both critical and anticlimactic for the Celtics. And there is far greater intrigue concerning what the Cs might do with their pick than at any other time in recent team history, by a wide margin. That is because there is so little coherence in how to rank order the players compared to most years.
It is critical because the Cs hold the 7th pick, the team’s highest since 1997, and the only time the Cs have drafted this high otherwise since the Len Bias pick – second overall -- in 1986. While the Cs ideally would track down the best big man or point guard prospect available, Danny will certainly pick the best prospect available, for reasons astute fans understand to the point of banality. What may happen is that if other teams are convinced the best player available when the Cs pick at 7 is a wing, Danny might make a trade to end up with a big or a point and to get additional goodies in the exchange. That is what smart GMs do.
What we do know is this: the Cs need to parlay the 7th pick into a quality starting caliber player, and we know such a player will be available at that slot. The Cs cannot afford to blow the pick, not if the goal is to move the current Cs core group to annual contender status within two or three years.
But the pick is anticlimactic for the Cs for a couple of reasons. The Cs young core is shaping up nicely – Antoine Walker’s comments notwithstanding. There is not a single player on the board who would come in and start for the Cs next year, and several prospective lottery picks would have difficulty getting serious rotation minutes through no fault of their own. So there is a chance that even a solid pick in this draft might not have an immediate impact.
It is also anticlimactic because this year’s draft is considered weak by historical standards. And, in a way, that is true, especially at the top. This is no 2003 draft brimming with Wade, James, Bosh and Anthony in the top five. In fact, had the NBA not prohibited high school seniors from entering the draft, 2006 might in fact be one for the ages. That is because the 2006 high school senior class is chock full of stud talent, among the best classes ever. It is going to make the lottery in the 2007 draft very expensive real estate, especially when you toss Joakim Noah into the mix. Let’s be glad Danny has two no. 1 picks in 2007.
But the idea that this is some sort of clunker draft is exaggerated. What has emerged over the past few year is that there is simply more talent than ever playing basketball. There has been depth in each of the past few drafts far in excess of what existed 10, 20 or 30 years ago. That is true this year as well, and will probably be true going into the future. More Americans are playing hoops, more Euros, more Africans, more Chinese. The game has exploded in popularity in the past generation and it is having a dramatic effect on the talent pool. It means that low no. 1 picks and no. 2 picks have much more value today than they did a while back.
To put it in perspective: prior to Danny Ainge becoming GM, the only no. 2 pick the Cs made of any value for the team in the previous 40 years was … Danny Ainge in 1981. And the Cs were able to draft Danny in round 2 only because he was playing baseball at the time. Had he been committed to playing in the NBA, he would have been a high lottery pick that year. Ryan Gomes arguably is already the second best no. 2 pick in Celtics history. Justin Reed is in the top ten, easily, if not the top five. And Orien Greene, as lame as he played, is a clear success for a no. 2 pick by historical standards.
So what will the Cs likely do? We have no idea, because we can be certain that Danny’s scouting report for the top prospects is different from what we see at various websites. The consensus is that there is a top six – Bargnani, Thomas, Aldridge, Gay, Roy, Morrison – and that Danny will take any of those guys if they fall to 7. That seems possible. Or, and here is where it gets interesting, Danny might trade the pick in that case to a team willing to overpay to get one of the top six. But I have no problem with adding any of these guys to the Cs, based on what I know about them.
After the top six, there is a group of nine or ten guys who get mentioned: S. Williams, Pecherov, Simmons and O’Bryant are the bigs; Carney, Brewer, Redick are the wings; Foye, Rondo, M. Williams are the points. Here is where Danny’s scouting genius will be tested. Assuming the big six are gone, Danny will pick from these nine or ten guys. Farmar, Sene and Rodriguez get mentioned too, and who knows, Danny may surprise us. But I sense he is working from a pallet with these ten names on it at pick seven.
What we do know from historical experience is this: of those ten players, one or two or three will be high quality starters, perhaps all-stars. Almost certainly one or two of them will have much better careers than the guys who are in the top tier of six players. Most the rest will be adequate or journeymen. A few will bomb out altogether. So while they are lumped together today, a year or two from now, they will be seen in much sharper relief and some of them will be extremely valuable and some of them will have little of no value. This is what Danny gets paid the big bucks to determine, and so far he has a very high batting average.
It is clear from Danny’s comments that he likes the depth of this draft. He hinted he might try to get into the 2nd round, and he has said there will be talented guys who go undrafted. So aside from the no. 1 pick, that is something to keep an eye on.
Go Danny Go. |
