| No Time To Panic: Where Do The Cs Kids Stand? Authored by Elrod Enchilada - April 22, 2007 - 2:27 pm
This has been perhaps the strangest 24-58 season in history. Imagine a team going from 45 to 33 to 24 victories over three seasons. One would expect a fan insurrection, or, as in most NBA cities, fan apathy and vast expanses of empty seats on game night. Coaches in the unemployment line. Yet the Cs remain remarkably popular with their fan base and there is considerable optimism about the team’s future, regardless of the outcome of the all-important lottery for the order of selections in the 2007 draft. It looks like their coach who has overseen this three year collapse will get an extension.
There are four reasons for the continued fan support. First, the scads of injuries provided a massive asterisk to the season. The Cs played much of the season without three of their four best players and nearly all their veterans. Few teams in the league would have done much better in such a context, especially when the remaining players were so young. Would the Cs have been a playoff team if completely healthy, with Wally, Paul, Tony and Big Al playing a good 75 healthy games each? Who knows? It certainly would have won a lot more games. One look at the W-L record with and without Pierce makes that clear. (20-27 and 4-31 for the record.) And if these guys are healthy nest year, with the emergence of Big Al, Rondo and Tony and a lotto pick, talk of the playoffs hardly seems outlandish. It will be a major disappointment if the CVs are not playing over 500 ball in 07-08.
Second, the team played hard and was almost always competitive. The games were often highly entertaining. Recall the Jim O’Brien era when the Cs would periodically get blown out in games and it seemed like a giant wet fart had descended upon the arena. The play was listless and the team lacked talent or promise aside from Pierce. It was painful to watch. Not so this year.
Third, the Cs have a smart fan base. Sure, the Cs have their share of transient and ignorant fans, but for the most part the team has a base of knowledgeable fans rivaled by only one or two other franchises in the league. This fan base is not interested in building a 45 win team that can make it to the playoffs and peaks. It wants to see the team take the steps to win flags and legitimately contend. And this fan base understands there is no magic wand that will produce that outcome. (Though a little magic in the lottery would definitely help!)
But the most important reason, and one that relates to all of the above, is that the Cs are an extremely young team by any standard that has some very intriguing young talent. If this talent develops as it may, this looks to provide the foundation for what may become an excellent team down the road. Toss in a high number one pick and keep Paul Pierce healthy and the future may be coming sooner rather than later. A future of success appears likely, if not inevitable. Moreover, the players on the team play hard and are extremely likeable. It is an easy team to follow.
Once it is clear where the Cs will draft and whom the team might select, we can revisit to roster to see what sort of trades or free agent signings might be pending. It is going to be the key issue between the lottery drawing and the end of summer. There is already a drum roll of media pressure on Danny to make big deals for veterans this off-season to jump start the road to contention. Fortunately, Danny and Wyc have shown restraint and have not allowed the jeremiads of Peter May and Steve Bulpett to force them into a desperation move. The team is not winning a title or even contending in 07-08, no matter what, so any trades that make next year’s team more enjoyable for May and Bulpett at the expense of subsequent years is the stuff of fools.
Right now let’s look at the ten kids on the roster and assess their seasons, what we have learned about them, and what their prospects are for the future. I will go in order of projected stature.
I will avoid giving letter grades as those are mostly meaningless. (Are the grades about how well a player does versus the league average or against their potential?) Instead I will use the following standard for assessing what type of career the player will have after three or four more years in the league. My criteria are:
Superstar: franchise player: routinely first or second team all-NBA (e.g. Jordan, Duncan, Bird, S. O’Neal). Legends. You get one of these guys, and you usually contend and often win flags. Oden and Durant look to have a chance to land in this category which is why everyone is desperate to get one of them.
- All-Star: periodic second or third team all-NBA but constant very high quality performer (e.g. Pierce, Brand, Ray Allen) who makes most all-star teams. These guys usually end up in the Hall-of-Fame, especially if they are lucky enough to be teamed up with a superstar and win some titles.
- Solid starter: not an all-star (or maybe once in a career) but a solid career as a starter for many years, and capable of starting for very good teams (e.g. Ainge, Jason Terry) Good teams tend to have several players in this category.
- Serious rotation guy: good player who has fairly long career and possibly starts for a while, but is primarily a solid rotation player off the bench playing steady minutes. (e.g. Gerald Henderson)
- Marginal rotation guy: enough talent to stay in the league for several years and periodically play. May have enough talent to start effectively for a while, but game has too many holes to become a reliable player getting serious minutes on a winning team. (e.g. Scalabrine)
- Marginal roster guy: lucky to have a job in the NBA and always close to being on the way out of the league. (e.g. Kevinn Pinkney)
1. Al Jefferson
What we learned this year: Big Al really was hurt last year. He was a revelation, becoming a double-double machine and extending his jump shot to 15 feet. He also lost weight and showed quickness to drive successfully. Big Al clearly has a work ethic. He has the talent to become a serious scorer of the 25 ppg variety. What Al has to do is learn how to draw fouls better, because he ought to have a second residence at the free throw line.
Where he is going: Big Al needs to add muscle, not necessarily weight. He needs to improve on defense. But there is a high likelihood that he is going to be a quality NBA starter, even an all-star during his career. There is little chance at this point that he will washout, unless he suffers severe injuries.
Where will Big Al be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 1 in 10
- All-Star: 5 in 10
- Solid starter: 4 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 0 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 0 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 0 in 10
2. Rajon Rondo
What we learned this year: Rondo has extraordinary physical talents and a nose for the ball that make him a superior defender and defensive game changer. He is also a promising open court point guard. He needs a jump shot and he needs experience in half court sets as a point. With his quickness and handle he should get to the line at will, but he does not as yet. The Phoenix Suns must rue the day they traded away the Rondo pick and elected to give Marcus Banks a huge contract instead. A truly bone-headed move. If Rondo were in the 2007 draft, he likely would go high. Chalk one up for Danny.
Where is he going: Up. Way Up. Just how far up remains to be seen. At 21 and with only one year in the league his future is more difficult to project. Paul Pierce states that with a jump shot Rondo becomes one of the top 5 point guards in the league. And he did not mean in five years: he meant as soon as the jump shot arrives. Tommy Heinsohn can barely contain himself when talking about Rondo. He is clearly Tommy’s favorite prospect in two decades.
Where will Rondo be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 1 in 10
- All-Star: 2 in 10
- Solid starter: 5 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 2 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 0 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 0 in 10
3. Tony Allen
What we learned this year: The Tony Allen we saw in his rookie season was the real deal, derailed in his sophomore campaign by an injury. The three weeks before his knee injury in January saw Tony Allen play absolutely stellar basketball. He was a prototypical 2 guard: tremendous defender, slasher and 20 ppg scorer, and decent outside shooter. He was getting to the line at a high clip. Tony can guard 1s, 2s, and 3s effectively, making him a wonderful complement to Pierce.
Where is he going: if fully healthy, he is going to have a superb career. The other factor will be his legal situation. I have no idea how that will go but I have seen little comment that it would put him in prison for an extended period. But it continues to be a distraction. There are periodic rumors about Tony having attitude and behavior issues, but if there is anything to that it is off-court. On the court he is a tiger who plays hard and with passion.
Where will Tony be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 1 in 10
- Solid starter: 4 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 4 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 1 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 0 in 10
4. Gerald Green
What we learned this year: Gerald Green remains an enigma wrapped is a riddle drowning in a sea of confusion. He has athletic ability that is almost unrivalled in the NBA along with a beautiful shooting stroke. He is only 21. But his understanding of the game is as low as just about any player in the game. He often appears clueless at both ends of the floor, and his concentration is questionable at times. Brian Scalabrine could drive on him. If he does make it, it likely will be as a pure scorer/shooter. He is not going to fill the stat sheet with assists, rebounds and steals. Nor does he have a penchant for getting to the line despite his extraordinary offensive talents.
Where is he going: He is probably the most difficult to project of any player on this team. His upside is off-the charts, but his lack of a feel for the game is frightening. If he works hard at his game he can have a solid career, but because of his lack of bball IQ, he cannot afford to coast on his talent. He has to become a workaholic. He has to work on his handle especially. One thing is clear: the Cs need to exercise supreme patience with Green, and allow him years to develop. One look at Gerald Wallace, a similar though not as gifted prospect, demonstrates that. It may be the Gerald Green does not hit his stride until his mid-to-late 20s.
Where will Green be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 2 in 10
- Solid starter: 3 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 4 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 1 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 0 in 10
5. Delonte West
What we learned this year: Delonte West belongs in the league and can play. He is a passable point and a better 2 guard. He needs to ramp up the offense to be a quality starter at the 2, but he is a dependable vet. He gets a little nicked up too much, and that is attributed to his passionate play. Seems to be a favorite of the organization because of his work ethic and personal charm.
Where he is going: Delonte’s statistics have not improved much this season and his shooting percentage fell. But it is not at all clear to me that he has plateaued. People harp on his need to develop his right hand and it is true. It probably costs him two-three baskets per game. Give him a right hand and some fine-tuning of his shot and he could be a scorer in the high teens.
Where will Delonte be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 0 in 10
- Solid starter: 4 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 5 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 1 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 0 in 10
6. Kendrick Perkins
What we learned this year: Kendrick Perkins can play in pain and he has a lot of heart. Statistically the year was a step backward in the rebounding department. We have to assume he will become a glass eater again when his foot is healthy come the fall. What Perk did demonstrate is that he is an above-average passer for a big, and a quality defensive player. He can move his feet and stay with just about any other big in the league. He brings an intensity and passion to the game that makes him a fan favorite.
Where he is going: Perk will never be much of a scorer but he can be a solid contributor offensively. He has a better shot than he has shown, demonstrated in his superb free throw shooting at the end of the season. He has to cut down on dumb moving pick fouls and get comfortable with his 12-15 foot shot. Perk plans to drop a lot of weight this off-season and come in with Big Al’s hungry look. I am a big fan and think he could still make a major jump.
Where will Perk be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 0 in 10
- Solid starter: 4 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 4 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 2 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 0 in 10
7. Ryan Gomes
What we learned this year: Ryan Gomes has extended the range on his shot and is becoming a decent scoring forward. He is too small to play the 4 effectively at the defensive end and has quickness issues at the 3. But he can score and he belongs in the league.
Where he is going: Although Gomes’s stats did not improve markedly from year 1 to year 2, he could still improve. If his shot continues to improve and include reliable 3-point range, he conceivably could become a very good high teens ppg guy. He has a good feel for the game. In that case he can become a quality starter.
Where will Gomes be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 0 in 10
- Solid starter: 3 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 5 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 2 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 0 in 10
8. Leon Powe
What we learned last year: Leon Powe was a revelation. For a low second round pick in a bad draft year, he surpassed all expectations. He is, at most, 6-6 in his socks, but with his long arms, powerful physique and demeanor he plays much bigger. Powe’s stock slipped because of ACL surgery on both knees, but he showed little sign of the injuries affecting him. He proved to be an excellent rebounder, especially at the offensive end, and had an impressive penchant for getting to the line. He is surprisingly quick for his size (even after two ACLs – man, he must have been a terror before them) and has some offensive talent.
Where he is going: At 6-6 it will be hard for Powe to ever be a quality starting 4 in the NBA, but it is not impossible. He needs to work on his handle, reduce turnovers, and extend the range on his jumper. He has to become a student of the game and become the king of intangibles. If he does, he has a chance to have a decent career.
Where will Powe be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 0 in 10
- Solid starter: 2 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 3 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 4 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 1 in 10
9. Allan Ray
What we learned last year: Allan Ray was an undrafted free agent who was a not especially athletic 6-1 (in socks) shooting guard. He proved to be a solid shooter with a poor handle and little capacity to play the point. At 6-1 he was a defensive liability. He played hard.
Where he is going: Because of his shot and his offensive nose Ray should stick around the league for a while. He might develop into a Mike James type scoring 1 down the road, but he has a lot of work to do before he can even pretend to play the 1. It was mostly embarrassing when he attempted to do so this season. And he lacks the quickness to stay with many 1s at the defensive end.
Where will Ray be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 0 in 10
- Solid starter: 0 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 2 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 5 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 3 in 10
10. Sebastian Telfair
What we learned last year: Telfair was a revelation. After all the hype, it was a shock to see just how lousy a player he was. For all the talk about his being a NYC point guard in the Cousy-Archibald-Mark Jackson tradition, it was mind-blowing to see Telfair’s game. He is an undersized and not especially athletic guard who has difficulty playing the point – in the half-court offense he is worthless -- and is not an especially good scorer. He is a well-below-average defender. For the next decade Danny Ainge and Celtic Nation will cringe every time we see Brandon Roy play for the Blazers. Despite the savings by avoiding a year of LaFrentz’s contract, the Cs could have gotten more for a no. 7 pick in the draft than Telfair and a future no. 2. Ouch.
Where is he going: out of town. He has almost no market value and his legal problems have put him on the Orien (Greene) express. Ironically all reports are that Telfair is a stand-up guy and a great teammate who has overcome obstacles that would have paralyzed most people. He may eventually make it but it will be many years from now and in a different town. Even if the Cs kept him, there is no way he is taking minutes from Rondo or West.
Where will Telfair be in three or four seasons, assuming good health?
- Superstar: 0 in 10
- All-Star: 0 in 10
- Solid starter: 0 in 10
- Serious rotation guy: 3 in 10
- Marginal rotation guy: 4 in 10
- Marginal roster guy: 3 in 10
By my calculation, odds are that these ten guys will produce, at the least, one all-star, two or three serious starters and three or four serious rotation players. Tony Allen is 25 and Ryan Gomes is 24 but these rest of these guys are 23 or younger.
(By the way, were one to conduct a similar analysis of the team Ainge inherited almost four years ago to the date in 2003, and looked at what sort of team he would have three or four years down the road, the answer would have been this: one all-star (Pierce) and two serious rotation guys (Walker, Battie). It was a team heading due south. At the time the Cs had perhaps the bleakest future in the league, though basking in the glow of the mighty 2002 playoff run, this point was not obvious to all.)
Add in a lotto pick, especially Oden or Durant, and keep Paul healthy and the grounds for optimism are plain to see. Our patience should be rewarded. Tell Peter May and Steve Bulpett to chill. This is no time to panic. |
