| Ball Of Confusion: Danny’s Strange Night Authored by Elrod Enchilada - June 29, 2007 - 12:19 pm
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All of this seemed entirely counter to Danny’s stated vision and track record, and the public statements of owner Wyc Groubeck. “We will make no trades where the player we give up is better than the player we receive in two years,” they intoned. “We will not compromise our ability to contend for a title to win games in the near term.” For countless Celtics fans these words warmed our hearts: our master had not lost his way. Although I thought Danny’s trading had declined with the Telfair deal, I loved his vision and thought he could draft talent as well as anyone.
In the late afternoon on draft day Aran Smith at nbadraft.net ran a piece on a rumor that Seattle would trade Ray Allen to the Cs for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and the Celtics no. 1 pick. I cracked. I sent Aran an email saying this was the most preposterous rumor of them all – if the Cs were going to trade away the fifth pick overall it was not going to be for a 32 year old max contract shooting guard who most definitely would not get the Cs into contention. That would be like torching the no. 1 pick. By the time Ray Allen had run out of steam, the player the Cs could have drafted would be entering his prime. It is hard enough to win a title in the NBA or even become a legitimate contender as it is; it was preposterous to think Danny Ainge would torch one of his few opportunities to expand the talent base of the team for a short-term solution that most certainly would not put the team into contention.
Boy, did I ever get that wrong. Aran, I apologize.
I was watching the draft at a friend’s house when the trade was announced. I was dumbfounded. At first I was confused because I was certain the Celtics were getting more, like Seattle’s 2008 no. 1 pick or Robert Swift. I soon realized my nightmare was real. We gave up the fifth pick and Delonte West for what? Two young starters, one a prospective all-star, each looking at a decade of basketball before them, for a 32 year old guy coming off injuries? If Danny was obsessed with moving the no. 1 pick, this was the best we could do? It was surreal to me then, and remains so. I knew much of the Boston sports media would love the deal, but I was heartened to see that Heinsohn and Cousy responded exactly as I did.
Immediately, a few thoughts came to mind. First of all, I like Ray Allen and had been thinking he would be a nice pick-up. And I know he is a class act who will be terrific in the locker room. But I never thought we would have to give our no. 1 for him. It struck me that the Cs wildly overpayed for Allen, in a manner reminiscent of how Rick Pitino – arguably the worst GM in Celtics history and one of the worst in NBA history – used to routinely overpay for mediocrities like Kenny Anderson and Vitaly Potapenko when he was competing with no one but himself.
I thought long and hard: could the Sonics get a high lottery pick and a 23 year old starting guard for Allen from any other team in the league? No, hell no. Why did Boston pay so much then? The lame defense: hey, we got rid of Wally Szczerbiak’s contract and Allen is an upgrade over Wally. Uhhh, yeah, but do you torch a high lottery pick to cut off one year of Wally’s contract and get a 32 year old shooting guard? Shouldn’t Delonte be sufficient to do that? And why Delonte?
I mean if Danny was obsessed with moving the no. 1 pick, couldn’t he have gotten a lot more, and in an area of need, like a big?
Then the truth came out: it was Ainge who had initiated the deal and had been pushing it. Unbelievable, I thought. He was bidding against himself. Rick Pitino redux. Danny Ainge had jumped the shark.
Second, this trade seemed to not fit with the needs of the team and the existing roster. What the heck does this mean for Tony Allen and Gerald Green? Tony is a pure 2 and Gerald is much more a 2 than a 3. Neither can play the 1. Tony Allen before his injury had established himself as a high-quality NBA 2 guard. Now, with Ray Allen on board, he would be lucky to play 15 minutes per game. And Gerald Green? Get a seat at the end of the bench next to Allan Ray, son. With Tony becoming a restricted free agent in a year, it seemed like this increased the chance he would be heading out of town. And lord knows what this does for Gerald’s development, after averaging 20 minutes per game last season. Are third year guys allowed to go to the D-League? At any rate, it is hard to see how Gerald and Tony can be anything but demoralized.
Then it dawned on me. This trade only made sense if another shoe would soon fall. Danny wildly overpayed for Ray Allen, dumping Delonte and marginalizing Tony Allen and Gerald Green, because it is part of a larger plan. It has to be.
But what is that plan?
In my view the Celtics are now planning to trade for Kevin Garnett. This deal was to convince Garnett that Boston means business, and wants to win everything right away. It will take Big Al, Theo, Gerald Green, and maybe some of Gomes and Telfair and Tony Allen along with Scals (for salary purposes) and a couple of no. 1 picks to get done, but Danny has to be planning to do it. It is a far better offer than Minnesota can get from anyone else, and Danny has shown he is not averse to overpaying. (Every other GM in the league must have Danny on speed dial.) It is the only way the Ray Allen trade makes any sense at all. Then Danny is throwing his bouquet to Peter May and the Boston sports media who have been clamoring for immediate success. He will put all his chips on one number. Danny will roll the dice that a Perkins-Garnett-Pierce-Ray Allen-Rondo unit can win a title. He will have a bench of Gomes and Tony Allen and will use the MLE to get veteran back-up help at the 1 and/or 5.
It will make for a fun ride for two or three years. Let’s hope it works. Because four years from now, when Garnett, Pierce and Ray Allen are either out of the league or on their last legs, the Cs likely will be a disaster zone. The team will certainly be 500 miles from contention. And we will see several wonderful players hitting their prime with other teams. Unless we get flag 17 by 2009, it could be like waking up with a hangover for the next ten years.
If not Kevin Garnett, then Jermaine O’Neal or Marcus Camby. (In the latter two cases, we had better keep Al, but after Danny’s last two trades I have little confidence he is capable of getting a bargain. He trades like a drunk Texas oilman trying to impress a beautiful woman.) The roster is thick at the 2 and woefully thin at the 1 and the 5. Danny will almost certainly have to move Ratliff and Green, at the minimum. And he will need to use the MLE to bring veteran depth.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe the deals stop with Ray Allen. Maybe this was driven mostly by commercial considerations and the owners basically want to make money in the near term and think the patience involved with contending is too expensive for their tastes. If we stand pat we will have a much better team in 07-08, but we will not win the title. (An injury or two may jeopardize our chance of even making the playoffs.) Nor will we win it in 08-09. And after 09 both Pierce and Allen will he heading due south, they will still be good, but no longer in their prime. Then this trade will appear to all as it appeared to me: plain stupid and indefensible.
But I just can’t believe that. Garnett, for better or for worse, has to be coming to Boston, and soon. Danny can’t have one foot in the present and one foot in the future without getting torn in half. He has taken the first step, and the other shoe must now fall. As the French revolutionary St. Just put it, “He who makes a revolution only half way is digging his own grave.” |
