| How Long Until The New Big Three Become The Old Medium Three? Authored by Elrod Enchilada - September 5, 2007 - 6:06 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | Final Thoughts On The 2008 NBA Draft This year's draft was decidedly more calm and casual than the Oden/Durant showdown, which made for a more candid and personal experience.
Grading The Deal: Knicks Sign DuhonThe Knicks overpaid for a below average starting point guard, but the move should still pay dividends.
 |
Oh Danny Boy
Danny Granger, who has just three years of NBA experience under his belt, will undoubtedly be the man in Indiana beginning this summer.
|
 |
$10 Million For Five Players?
The Orlando Magic will be limited by the NBA's Luxury Tax in terms of filling the remaining spots on their roster. It is also possible it could cost them Keyon Dooling or Maurice Evans.
|
 |
Raptorland’s New Carnivore
The Raptors are bringing in a player who will have an immediate impact (unlike Hibbert or whomever the Raptors would’ve drafted at 17), plays a position of need (unlike Ford,) and carries a reputation of intimidation (unlike Nesterovic).
|
|
More from RealGM's Columnists
|
| |
The Cs are legitimate contenders as long all three are in their primes. It could be zero years if the injury bugs continue with Allen and Pierce and take their toll, or it could be a good four or five years if they remain in good health.
In this piece let’s consider the possible realistic upside.
The general rule is that the greater a player is, the longer his prime and the longer his career.
In the case of Kevin Garnett, there are grounds to be optimistic. He has never been injured seriously, is a workout freak, is an unreal athlete, and has the body type, a la Chief, that translates into longevity. If we are fortunate, we will get something approaching a Karl Malone career arch. Malone had a different body type but he played the same position and had a similar work ethic and injury history. Malone played at his absolute peak from ages 31 through 34, going first team all-NBA annually and even winning an MVP award. Then from 35-39 he was still a high quality all-star player, though his game slid a notch. His scoring and rebounding declined a bit (though still impressive) but his assists increased. He used brains to compensate for declining athletic ability.
Karl Malone's Career Stats
If the Cs get nine years of that caliber from KG we will be delirious with joy. He will enter the pantheon of Celtics superstars directly after Russell and Bird. And we will probably get a stack of 50-60 win seasons, and annual contention. Most important, give us four years of all-world play from now to 2011.
The case with Ray Allen translates best to Reggie Miller. They have similar body types, and both have the sort of jump shot form that they will take with them to the grave. Allen is a better player and better athlete; he can really score in a manner Miller never could. He is also a better passer. Allen, like Miller, also never got injured to speak of, accept for 2003 and then this last season. The injuries were not chronic, and did not cause him to miss entire seasons. We have to hope that Allen's legendary work ethic and professionalism will keep him at a high level for years to come.
Reggie Miller's Career Stats
Reggie Miller played at his peak until he was 35 -- that would take Ray Allen to 2011 -- and then played four more years of good quality but a notch or two below that. If we get this from Ray Allen, we will be extremely satisfied. And it is not unrealistic.
And then there is Paul Pierce. Until last year Pierce was an absolute stud who almost never missed a game. As with Ray Allen we do not know if last season’s foot injury was an aberration, or if it is the harbinger of what is to come.
The concern with Pierce is his body type – chunky – and his playing style – aggressive and physical. He gets beat up going to the hole like few NBA players – hey refs, how about giving Paul a few more calls from now on? -- and eventually, like Earl Campbell in the NFL, that can take a toll. So his is the most difficult to project. What we do know is that Pierce is the youngest of the three. In fact Pierce probably feels like Tommie Lee Jones when he was cast with James Garner and Clint Eastwood in Space Cowboys. “Why am I being lumped in with these geezers?”
And we also know that Paul passionately loves playing hoops and is dedicated to the game. So he may be able to extend his career. In his case, more than KG or Ray Allen, a cut back in minutes to 34 per game, might help keep him fresher and healthier.
I find it more difficult to find a retired player whose career arc could be a model for Paul Pierce. The best I can do is Charles Barkley, though Barkley was a better player than Pierce, as much as I love Paul.
Charles Barkley's Career Stats
Barkley peaked in the season he turned 30, and then had four or five more years of solid all-star caliber play, but below the level he played at from age 25 to age 30. His prime, compared to Malone and Miller, came to an end several years before theirs did. So did his career.
I think Paul, despite his younger age, is the biggest question mark of the three in terms of who will remain at his peak the longest. And I think he still has a good chance of remaining at his peak until he is at least 32, or three more seasons. Anything past that is gravy. I think his stated goal of losing weight this off-season – despite playing the 3 rather than the 2 – is a very good idea. The more he looks like John Havlicek and the less he looks like Charles Barkley the better.
So by my calculations, we probably have three seasons of New Big Three Prime Time.
And this changes the nature of Danny Ainge’s job as team president 180 degrees. That will be the subject of my next article. |
