| The Third Man: Danny Ainge Reprises A Classic Authored by Elrod Enchilada - October 1, 2007 - 6:42 pm
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It has been established that NBA championship are won at least 90 percent of the time when the best player on the team is one of the five best players in the league, and usually one of the 20 best players of all-time. Evidence: Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird. Six guys, all who are easily top 20 all-time players, and guess what? Those guys were the best players on 24 of the last 28 NBA championship teams.
The Cs now have a player who by all statistical and anecdotal accounts is of that caliber in Kevin Garnett. There are probably only a handful of teams in the league that can make that claim, and now the Cs are one of them. The last year the Cs could say this was 1987. It changes everything.
Most NBA champions also usually have a no. 2 guy who is a superstar or perennial all-star in his own right. The no. 2 guys over the past 28 years include Kobe Bryant, Scottie Pippen, Kevin McHale, Clyde Drexler, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar among others.
The Cs today with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have a one-two punch that can hold its own with any team in the league. The only team that is arguably superior is Phoenix with Nash and Stoudemire. The only other teams that come close and may be superior are Miami (Shaq ain’t what he used to be, or else Miami would be way at the top of the list) and San Antonio (Duncan and either Parker or Ginobili). Sure some other teams have interesting combinations like Denver, New Jersey and Utah, but I doubt any GM in the league would take their top two over Boston’s for the 07-08 season.
So by that criteria the Cs look to be a contender, assuming Danny does his job of rounding out the roster with role players and Doc does his job of locating the best rotation and getting the guys to play together.
But Danny’s secret weapon, the reason why Kevin Garnett apparently relented and agreed to come to Boston, is his Third Man: Ray Allen. Allen is an all-star 2 guard, still at the top of his game, and one of the 20 or 25 best players on the planet. And he is the third best player on the Celtics. Understood this way, the optimism of Cs players, management, and fans increases exponentially.
Question: How many other NBA teams have a third best player who is as good as Ray Allen?
Answer: One or two, at most, and those teams, San Antonio and Phoenix, were probably the best two teams in the NBA over the past three seasons.
Look at the other candidates for “Third Man” among the teams that made the playoffs last year in the Eastern Conference:
Chicago’s would be Ben Gordon or Kirk Hinrich or Ben Wallace, and one of them has to be no. 2 behind Luol Deng. No comparison. Oh, and by the way, Chicago’s first two are not in the Garnett-Pierce league either.
Detroit’s’ would be Tayshaun Prince or Rasheed Wallace. Great role players but not in Ray Allen’s league. Oh, and by the way, Detroit’s first two are not in the Garnett-Pierce league either.
Cleveland’s prospective number 3 best player might be Hughes or Ilgauskas. Ouch. No wonder Lebron is chomping at the bit.
It is arguable that the third best player for Miami is now on the Celtics bench: James Posey. After Wade and Shaq, that roster looks like Rick Pitino took a GM internship there over the summer.
Toronto’s third best is Bargnani or Ford. Not close, not yet.
New Jersey’s third best is Richard Jefferson. If healthy, he actually is one of the best Third Men in the league, but still no Ray Allen.
Washington, too, has a good Third Man in Butler or Jamison. But no Ray Allen. And I’d take Garnett over Arenas any day of the week.
Orlando’s third best player is probably Jameer Nelson, and the Magic are not convinced he can even be a starter on a team that goes deep into the playoffs. No comparison.
Out west, after Phoenix (Shawn Marion) and San Antonio (Parker or Ginobili), the best third men are Mehmet Okur and Marcus Camby. Most the other teams have guys who are not all-stars, to be generous.
Again, notice that the only teams with Third Men in the same class as Boston are the two teams that have been the very best teams in the NBA over the past three seasons, or, if you throw in Dallas, two of the best three teams in the NBA over that period.
In short, when one looks at the Third Man factor, the Cs look to be a powerhouse, assuming Ainge and Rivers do their jobs and this team gels before April. If these three guys are as good as they appear to be, that should not be a problem.
The matter becomes even clearer when one looks at past NBA champions. With the exception of the Shaq-Bryant Lakers, almost all repeat champions and dynasties have had Third Men that would have been First Men or Second Men on just about any other team in the league. In the case of Shaq and Kobe, the Lakers had two of the five best players in the game. That happens very very rarely. When it does, teams seem to win multiple titles.
Who are these great Third Men? Dennis Rodman, Robert Parish, James Worthy, for starters.
I have not done the research but I dare say there have been few NBA teams with Third Men as good as Ray Allen, when all three were in their primes, as are the Cs. Sure Houston had Barkley and Pippen and Olajuwon, but all three were long in the tooth. Put those three together in their primes, and look out. The Lakers back in the early 70s had West, Wilt and Baylor, but Baylor was halfway out to pasture. Had those three played their entire careers together I doubt my beloved Celtics would have won 11 flags during the Russell era.
Hence the optimism.
The downside for Cs fans is that while these guys are in their primes, they are in their early 30s and the “window of opportunity” may only be a year or two long. So this team wins a flag this year or next year or it is unlikely to do so. This means the Cs do not have the luxury that almost all other champions have had of taking a few years to assemble the necessary ingredients and let the team simmer. Danny and Doc need to abandon the slow cooker and proceed to the microwave,
That raises the degree of difficulty, and means a Cs championship is far from certain, but it does not make it impossible.
This version of The Third Man could have a happy ending. |
